Market Scale: An Unexpected Contraction

Brazil's second-crop corn industry holds a pivotal position in the global agricultural landscape, yet its crop protection market has witnessed an unexpected adjustment. According to the FarmTrak Corn 2025 survey by Kynetec Brazil, the market size of crop protection for Brazil's second-crop corn (winter corn) in this season reached $2.36 billion, a 7% decrease compared to the previous season's $2.523 billion. Fluctuations in costs and exchange rates emerged as the core influencing factors.

Structural adjustments in the costs and prices of crop protection products constitute one of the primary reasons for market contraction, with the average price of relevant products dropping by 13% during this cycle. While the price decline has reduced farmers' procurement costs, from a macro market perspective, it reflects phased changes in supply and demand relations—enterprises have moderately cut profits to compete for market share, directly compressing the overall revenue scale and forming a short-term pattern of "stable volume and declining prices."

Exchange rate fluctuations have exerted a superimposed impact, with the Brazilian Real depreciating by 16% against the US Dollar during the growth period of the second-crop corn. Since the market size is denominated in US Dollars, currency depreciation has directly lowered the statistical total. For local crop protection enterprises, the sales revenue denominated in Reals has not declined by the same margin, but the data contracted significantly when converted into US Dollars, highlighting the exchange rate sensitivity of agricultural trade in emerging markets.

Countertrend Growth in Planting Area

Amidst the market contraction, the planting sector has shown a countertrend growth momentum: the planting area of second-crop corn in this season reached 16.9 million hectares, a 6% year-on-year increase. This divergent phenomenon of "declining market vs. expanding planting" stems from three core drivers: improved efficiency of soybean rotation, the driving force of the ethanol industry, and the support of export demand.

The efficient connection between the soybean and corn rotation system serves as the fundamental guarantee. Brazilian farmers widely adopt the "soybean-corn" rotation model. The timely completion of soybean planting this season has freed up sufficient planting windows for the second-crop corn, avoiding area reduction caused by delayed farming seasons and ensuring the efficient utilization of land resources.

The rapid expansion of the ethanol industry has formed a rigid demand driver. Brazil's corn ethanol production capacity has been continuously released in recent years, with 25 existing production plants and 15 under construction. The output is expected to reach 8.25 billion liters in the 2024-2025 fiscal year and exceed 10 billion liters in 2025-2026. The substantial demand for corn raw materials from the ethanol industry has directly incentivized farmers to expand planting areas, forming a coordinated development between agriculture and the energy industry.

Strong demand in the export market provides crucial support. As the world's second-largest corn exporter, Brazilian corn is highly favored in the international market, with continuous growth in orders for feed and industrial corn. Based on expectations of export earnings, farmers have proactively expanded planting areas to increase output, forming a virtuous cycle of "demand-driven supply."

Product Category: The Rise of Fungicides

A historic breakthrough has occurred in the product structure: foliar fungicides have surpassed herbicides for the first time, becoming the second-largest segmented market after foliar insecticides. In this season, the sales of foliar fungicides reached $500 million, accounting for 21%; while herbicide sales stood at $466 million, accounting for 20%. This change reflects the upgraded demand for pest and disease control in Brazilian corn planting.

The "rise of fungicides and decline of herbicides" shows a distinct contrast: fungicide sales reached $473 million in the previous season, achieving a slight growth this season; while herbicides decreased from $543 million in the previous season to $466 million. The core driving factor is the sharp increase in disease pressure due to expanded planting areas. The rising risk of diseases such as leaf spot and rust has prompted farmers to increase investment in fungicides. Meanwhile, the optimization of rotation models and the promotion of mechanical weeding technology have reduced reliance on herbicides to a certain extent.

The rapid penetration of high-end fungicides is the key driver, accounting for 49% of the total disease control expenditure ($245 million), with the adoption rate surging from 33% to 51% and an average application frequency of 1.4 times. Among them, strobilurin compound products are the most popular, covering an area of 7.098 million hectares, accounting for 42% of the total fungicide application area. Their broad-spectrum and high-efficiency characteristics are perfectly adapted to Brazil's diverse disease environment. In contrast, although the variety of specialized products for malignant weeds such as goosegrass has increased in the herbicide market, the overall demand growth remains sluggish, further widening the gap with fungicides.

Technology and Application: Innovation-Driven Growth

Technological innovation has become the core means to resolve the contradiction between "market contraction and planting expansion." Compared with 2024, the adoption rate of second-crop corn planting technology has increased by 11% this season, with the Potential Application Area (PAT) reaching 386 million hectares, a 24% year-on-year increase. The three major fields of insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides all show a trend of application upgrading characterized by "precision and high efficiency."

Insecticide application presents the characteristics of "quality and quantity improvement." The application frequency for foliar caterpillars has increased from 2.3 times to 2.8 times, and the sales proportion has risen from 20% to 31%. This benefits from the promotion of high-efficiency and low-toxicity insecticides and the optimization of pest monitoring technology—farmers achieve "on-demand application" by accurately grasping the pest occurrence cycle, which not only improves the control effect but also drives the increase in product sales proportion.

Herbicide application has transformed towards "targeted control." Strengthened efforts have been made to control malignant weeds such as goosegrass (Eleusine indica) and crabgrass (Digitaria insularis), and the adoption rate of broad-spectrum/dry products for broadleaf weed control has increased from 19% to 38%. R&D breakthroughs in new herbicides have solved the problem of controlling herbicide-resistant weeds. Farmers have achieved "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" by reducing application frequency and improving application precision, promoting the rapid penetration of specialized products.

The technological upgrading of fungicides is the most significant, with high-end products accounting for nearly half of the market and strobilurin compound products highlighting their dominant position. Developed based on the metabolic mechanism of pathogenic bacteria, these products can control multiple diseases simultaneously and are adapted to Brazil's complex climatic and soil conditions. They have become the "core weapon" for farmers to increase output, driving the structural growth of the fungicide market.

Regional Distribution: Dominance of Core Producing Areas and Growth of Emerging Areas

Brazil's second-crop corn planting presents a regional pattern of "dominance of core producing areas and rise of emerging areas." Mato Grosso maintains its leading position with a planting area of 7.25 million hectares (43%), followed by Paraná with 2.7 million hectares (16%) and rapid growth. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul each account for 13% (2.21 million hectares), while the remaining producing areas collectively account for 15%.

Mato Grosso's leading position stems from the dual advantages of natural conditions and infrastructure. The state boasts vast and fertile land and a climate suitable for corn growth. The complete irrigation system and transportation network ensure production efficiency, and the mature technology promotion system accelerates the implementation of advanced planting models, forming a composite competitiveness of "resources + infrastructure + technology."

Paraná's 14% year-on-year growth rate demonstrates strong potential. By promoting precision agriculture technology, strengthening the empowerment of agricultural cooperatives, and increasing infrastructure investment, the state has achieved simultaneous improvement in planting efficiency and area, becoming an important growth pole outside the core producing areas and providing key support for Brazil's corn production capacity expansion.

Producing areas such as Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul maintain stable development and form differentiated competitiveness by cultivating characteristic varieties and deepening industrial chain cooperation. Medium and small producing areas such as Bahia and Minas Gerais rely on regional resource endowments to develop organic planting and agricultural product processing, enriching the diversified ecology of Brazil's corn industry.

Future Outlook: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities

Looking forward, Brazil's second-crop corn crop protection market presents a pattern of "coexistence of challenges and opportunities." Short-term challenges focus on exchange rate fluctuations, intensified market competition, and uncertainties in pest and disease occurrence. However, the expansion of planting areas, the increase in technology penetration rate, and the growth of export demand constitute long-term support, and the market is expected to achieve a recovery of "simultaneous growth in volume and price."

The core opportunity lies in technological innovation and structural upgrading. With the further penetration of high-end fungicides and precision application technology, farmers' demand for high-efficiency crop protection products will continue to be released. Meanwhile, the expansion of the ethanol industry and the expansion of export markets will drive the steady growth of planting scale, providing incremental space for the crop protection market. Enterprises with technological advantages will occupy the competitive high ground.

Coping strategies require multi-party collaboration: enterprises should focus on high-end product R&D and precision marketing, and strengthen technical service capabilities; farmers need to accelerate the adoption of advanced technologies and improve the refinement level of planting management; the government and industry associations should improve infrastructure, standardize market order, and strengthen technology promotion. With joint efforts from all parties, Brazil's second-crop corn industry will realize the transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency improvement," consolidating its core position in the global corn supply chain.