Last week, the pesticide active ingredient market appeared calm on the surface, but internally it was undergoing a significant structural divergence. Overall, market trading sentiment was low, with most downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in trading volumes failing to see a significant increase. However, beneath this calm exterior, a sharp market polarization was unfolding.

【Price Dynamics of Key Products by Sector】

Herbicide：

96% Oxyfluorfen: Surged by $701, closing at $19,630/ton.

95% Glufosinate-ammonium: Climbed steadily by $70, to $6,520/ton.

95% Glyphosate: Edged up slightly by $28, to $3,814/ton.

97% Atrazine: Faced downward pressure, falling by $140, to $3,085/ton.

Insecticide:

96% Chlorantraniliprole: Dropped sharply by $701, to $32,950/ton.

97% Spirodiclofen: Price decreased by $280, to $18,508/ton.

97% Imidacloprid: Fell by $140, to $9,254/ton.

96% Thiamethoxam: Slid by $140 in tandem, to $7,291/ton.

Fungicide:

97% Tebuconazole: Bucked the trend on tight supply, rising $70, to $7,291/ton.

97% Hymexazol: Weak demand led to a $281 drop, to $10,095/ton.

97% Pyraclostrobin: Saw a minor downward adjustment of $141, to $20,891/ton.

【Market Outlook】

Our fundamental assessment is that the market is unlikely to experience major price swings in the short term and will likely remain stable. With the global market entering a seasonal off-peak for demand, there is a lack of strong external drivers, meaning most product prices will hold steady with limited room for fluctuation.

However, beneath the surface, two key points warrant close attention:

Limited Downside Potential: For products that have been on a continuous price decline, they have likely neared their bottom, leaving little room for further significant drops.

Building Upward Momentum: More importantly, inventories for mainstream pesticides are bottoming out. This gives manufacturers strong leverage and incentive to raise prices, and rumors of hikes are already circulating. This indicates that once buying activity resumes, prices are poised for a swift rebound.

Once downstream distributors begin restocking or any positive market news emerges, prices could reverse their trend and rally quickly and sharply.

Therefore, the current market stability feels more like a prelude to the next price rally. We advise market participants to closely monitor inventory levels and manufacturer activities to prepare for potential market shifts.