Brazil's bioinput industry, once a "star" in the field of agricultural growth, is now overshadowed by uncertainty. Fábio Sgarbi, an agricultural strategist who has long closely followed the development of biological agents in Brazil, has issued an alarming judgment: among the companies currently active in the biocontrol product sector, as many as 75% may vanish from the market in the next few years, unable to adapt to stricter market changes and meet the scale required for survival. This judgment signifies that an industry once driven by innovation, strong demand, and regulatory incentives to achieve "explosive" growth is rapidly entering a more selective new phase. Only enterprises with clear strategies, financial resilience, and distribution capabilities will be able to survive in the market.​

From Explosive Growth to Prominent Bottlenecks: Sgarbi Analyzes the Pains of Industry Transformation​

Between 2018 and 2023, Brazil's bioinput industry experienced a golden period of growth. Driven by sustainable development goals, the surging demand for alternatives to chemical pesticides, and government-supported innovation projects, the usage of bioinputs in the industry grew at a double-digit annual rate. The market was brimming with vitality—start-ups and bio-factories emerged like mushrooms across Brazil, painting a picture of prosperity for the industry.​

However, this wave of growth did not last long. In an analysis published on LinkedIn, Fábio Sgarbi bluntly pointed out that as the market matures, the industry's structural shortcomings are being exposed at an accelerating pace. He noted that many enterprises suffer from fatal flaws: some lack an extensive distribution network, making it impossible to effectively reach farmers with their products; others struggle to ensure the stability of product efficacy, failing to gain long-term trust; and still more lack large-scale production capabilities, unable to meet market demand. "Brazil's bioinput market is transitioning from an 'enthusiastic expansion phase' to a 'cruel selection phase'," Sgarbi emphasized. "In the next few years, the market will clearly distinguish between two types of enterprises: one consists of strong players with clear strategic paths and solid core capabilities, while the other comprises followers who merely entered the market relying on the dividends of the initial wave and lack competitiveness."​

Today, over 400 bioinput products in Brazil have obtained registration approval, and dozens of enterprises are crowding into niche areas such as biocontrol, biofertilizers, and inoculants. Nevertheless, oversupply combined with low operational efficiency is continuously squeezing corporate profit margins. More critically, industry resources are highly concentrated—Sgarbi observed that most of the revenue is held by a handful of leading enterprises. These companies, relying on continuous R&D investment and a well-established distribution network throughout the agricultural industrial chain, firmly control the market advantage. In contrast, other small and medium-sized enterprises face immense difficulties in expanding their businesses and are teetering on the brink of survival. "In the next five years, approximately 75% of enterprises may disappear, either acquired or merged," Sgarbi asserted. The industry must reshape its structure through consolidation to enhance overall competitiveness.​

Intertwined Opportunities and Risks: Sgarbi Interprets the Industry's Future and Global Impact​

Despite issuing a grim warning, Sgarbi also objectively pointed out that the fundamentals of Brazil's bioinput industry remain strong. As the world's largest soybean producer and a leader in tropical agriculture, Brazil holds enormous potential in the field of biological agents—particularly in integrated pest management and sustainable intensive production systems. However, he specifically emphasized that "credibility is the lifeline": if biocontrol products fail to guarantee quality, achieve traceability, or demonstrate stable efficacy in the field, they will quickly lose the trust of farmers. After all, farmers have rigid requirements for product reliability and cost-effectiveness. "Only enterprises that combine innovation, efficiency, regulatory compliance, and robust business strategies will be able to gain a firm foothold in this field," Sgarbi added.​

In Sgarbi's view, the potential upheaval in Brazil's bioinput market is by no means a "local incident". Given Brazil's significant share in the global usage of agricultural biological agents, the trajectory of its industry development has become a "weather vane" for other emerging markets. If a large-scale wave of acquisitions occurs in the future, it will not only reshape the industrial structure in Brazil but also have a ripple effect on the global supply chain—impacting the availability, pricing, and international competitiveness of biocontrol products.​

For different groups, the impact of this industry reshuffling varies greatly. Sgarbi analyzed that in the short term, farmers may face uncertainties such as unstable product supply and price fluctuations. However, for investors and agricultural industry giants, this presents a rare strategic opportunity—they can leverage this period to integrate high-quality resources in the frontier field of agricultural technology and seize the initiative in driving growth.​

From "explosive growth" to "selective survival", the transformation of Brazil's bioinput industry is imminent. Fábio Sgarbi's judgment serves not only as a warning about the industry's crisis but also as a driving force to urge enterprises to enhance their competitiveness. In the upcoming reshuffling, only enterprises with truly core capabilities will be able to navigate through the cycle and emerge as builders of the industry's new order.