During the administration of President Donald Trump, the US agricultural sector is undergoing a dramatic transformation driven by tariff policies, with the cost of agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, reaching alarming levels. This places a heavy burden on farmers already facing numerous challenges, particularly in the cultivation of major crops like corn, wheat, and soybeans.

Agricultural groups initially exercised caution in openly criticizing the Trump administration's tariff strategies, but as fertilizer costs continued to rise, they were compelled to act. Over the past few months, these groups have actively engaged with Republican lawmakers and government officials, hoping to find solutions to alleviate the pressure of rising fertilizer prices. Fertilizer expenditure accounts for over 30% of the total input costs for row crop farmers, an impact that cannot be ignored.

The National Corn Growers Association and its affiliated corn grower groups from 25 states recently sent a joint letter to the US Trade Representative, Secretary of Commerce, and Secretary of Agriculture, emphasizing that current fertilizer prices are "nearing catastrophic levels" and urging the government to take action to reduce them. They pointed out that with low corn prices, trade uncertainties, and persistently high costs for fertilizers and other inputs (including related anti-dumping duties), farmers face a disastrous environment when planning for current harvests and next season's plantings. This predicament poses a serious threat to farmers' livelihoods and the sustainability of agricultural production.

Illinois University's agricultural management experts indicate that the increase in fertilizer costs is squeezing farmers' profits for the 2026 planting season. Due to numerous global supply challenges, fertilizer prices are continuously rising while commodity prices remain stagnant.

Notably, nitrogen fertilizer prices have continued to climb in recent months, increasing by 10% to 15% compared to last year, which is very high relative to corn prices. This disparity could lead some farmers to cut their fertilization budgets or, if demand increases, potentially plant more soybeans.

As new tariff rates gradually become clear, various industries are beginning to analyze their impact on their respective sectors. Data shows that many commonly used agricultural inputs, rather than imported agricultural products, are bearing the brunt of significant tariff increases.

Since President Trump took office, the average effective tariff rate for all agricultural inputs has soared from a mere 0.9% to 12.2%. Some critical agricultural inputs, including pesticides, have seen even steeper tariff hikes. The average effective tariff rate for herbicides, insecticides, and other pesticides currently stands at 20% or higher.

The agricultural machinery sector has not been spared either. The average effective tariff rates for tractors and other agricultural machinery and parts have risen from near zero to 16% and 13% respectively. Phosphates and nitrogen, which enjoyed tariff exemptions before Trump's tenure, now face an average effective tax rate of close to 10%.

An associate professor at North Dakota State University notes that many of these tariffs have only just begun to take effect. Therefore, it remains unclear whether these tariffs will ultimately be passed on to consumers. So far, US consumer price inflation has remained below 3% over the past year. However, a rise in agricultural input prices is still a possibility.

Despite significant tariff increases on some specific agricultural products (including coffee from Brazil) since Trump took office, imported food products have generally been shielded from broad tariff hikes thanks to presidential exemptions. Trump's decision to exempt products covered by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) somewhat mitigated the largest impact on food importers. Approximately 43% of US agricultural imports come from Mexico and Canada, with most of these covered by the USMCA.

The European Union accounts for 17% of US agricultural imports and currently faces a tariff cap of 15%. Many food items purchased by the US from the EU, such as wine and cheese, already faced high tariffs, which have now only seen slight adjustments up to the 15% cap.

Even Brazil, which recently saw an additional 40% tariff (on top of its existing 10% base tariff), had a large number of food and beverage products exempted from tariffs after the government issued waivers for about 700 items.

Before Trump began his second term, the average tariff rate for US agricultural imports was 4%. Today, this rate has jumped to 15%. This shift has undoubtedly had a profound impact on US agricultural production and the landscape of agricultural imports.